In the midst of escalating transatlantic tensions, European policymakers and technology experts are raising alarm over the continent’s growing dependence on a handful of American cloud computing providers. With Google, Microsoft, and Amazon supplying approximately 70% of Europe’s cloud infrastructure, questions are emerging about the potential risks of a so-called US “kill switch” the possibility that access to critical online services could be disrupted by decisions made in Washington.
- The Risks of US Control Over European Cloud Infrastructure
- The Incident That Sparked Urgency: ICC Email Disruption
- Europe’s Quest for Digital Sovereignty: Challenges and Realities
- Industry Responses: US Firms Offer ‘Sovereign’ Solutions
- The Policy Debate: Regulation, Investment, and Innovation
- Economic and Strategic Implications
- Assessing the ‘Kill Switch’ Scenario: Risk Versus Reality
- Looking Ahead: Europe’s Digital Sovereignty Journey
The Risks of US Control Over European Cloud Infrastructure
Imagine a scenario where the US government instructs dominant technology firms to suspend services in Europe. Such an event, once deemed implausible, is now a serious topic of discussion among policymakers and industry insiders. Robin Berjon, a digital governance expert advising the European Union, warns, “Critical data would become inaccessible, websites would go dark, and essential state services like hospital IT systems would be thrown into chaos.”
At the heart of these concerns lies Europe’s reliance on American tech giants who control not just cloud computing, but also satellite internet, hardware, artificial intelligence platforms, and mobile operating systems. This concentration has intensified fears about Europe’s limited ability to independently govern its digital ecosystem, especially given the unpredictability of political developments in the United States.
The Incident That Sparked Urgency: ICC Email Disruption
The abstract risk became very real in May 2025 when Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court (ICC) based in The Hague, lost access to his Microsoft Outlook email following US sanctions imposed by the White House. The ICC had recently issued arrest warrants against senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for alleged war crimes related to the Israel-Gaza conflict charges vehemently opposed by former US President Donald Trump.
While Microsoft denies that it suspended services to the ICC, stating it remained in contact “throughout the process that resulted in the disconnection,” the episode underscored the vulnerability of European institutions that depend on US-based digital infrastructure. Since then, the issue of digital sovereignty the capacity of a region to control its data and technology has surged to the top of the agenda in Brussels.
Europe’s Quest for Digital Sovereignty: Challenges and Realities
The concept of digital sovereignty broadly refers to Europe’s ability to regulate and control its own data flows, technological systems, and security standards, independent of foreign influence. However, the reality is daunting. European cloud providers like France’s OVHCloud and Germany’s T-Systems or Delos represent only a fraction of the market and lack the scale and comprehensive service offerings of US giants.
Dario Maisto, senior analyst at consultancy Forrester, notes, “It’s a myth to think Europe can’t move away from US providers, but it won’t happen overnight.” Several regional governments have started experimenting with open-source software alternatives to Microsoft and Google products. For instance, Germany’s Schleswig-Holstein state is replacing Microsoft Office 365 and Windows with LibreOffice and Linux, and Denmark’s Ministry for Digitalisation is pursuing similar initiatives.
Maisto adds, “Open-source solutions can meet basic needs and are often overlooked due to lack of awareness or unfounded cybersecurity fears.” He predicts an accelerated shift towards these options over the next five to ten years.
Industry Responses: US Firms Offer ‘Sovereign’ Solutions
Google, Microsoft, and Amazon insist they provide “sovereign” cloud services designed to protect European clients’ data sovereignty by storing data within the EU and implementing strict governance policies. Google, for example, partners with trusted EU suppliers like T-Systems who control encryption keys, giving customers “a technical veto” over their data. The German Army counts itself among Google Cloud’s clients.
Microsoft President Brad Smith has publicly vowed legal resistance should the US government ever attempt to force a suspension of services in Europe, calling such a move “exceedingly unlikely.” A Microsoft spokesperson told the BBC, “We continue to look for new ways to ensure European institutions and customers have the assurances they need to operate with confidence.”
OVHCloud chief executive Benjamin Revcolevschi argues that only fully European-based providers can guarantee immunity from non-European laws, thus properly protecting sensitive data.
The Policy Debate: Regulation, Investment, and Innovation
Despite growing political interest, experts say Europe’s digital sovereignty agenda suffers from fragmented strategies and slow implementation. Robin Berjon states, “There is political will but it’s a question of turning it into a coherent, shared approach.”
Zach Meyers of Brussels-based Centre on Regulation in Europe suggests that Europe might focus on establishing limited sovereign clouds for critical government data rather than attempting full decoupling from American supply chains. He highlights the challenges facing ambitious initiatives like Gaia-X, launched in 2020 to create a European alternative to dominant cloud platforms but which has encountered delays and criticisms.
Meyers emphasises Europe’s potential competitive advantage in specific tech sectors, such as industrial applications of artificial intelligence or advanced semiconductor equipment like photolithography for which Europe holds some leadership.
Economic and Strategic Implications
Matthias Bauer, director at the European Centre for International Political Economy, frames the issue as an urgent industrial policy challenge. Europe’s tech sector lags significantly behind the US and China. According to a 2024 EU competitiveness report by Mario Draghi, only four of the world’s top 50 tech companies are European, and fragmentation across languages, regulations, and tax frameworks impedes continental scale-up.
Bauer argues that developing a robust European technology ecosystem is vital not only for sovereignty but also for economic resilience amid global uncertainties. “The current landscape makes it harder for European tech firms to compete at the scale seen in America,” he says.
Assessing the ‘Kill Switch’ Scenario: Risk Versus Reality
While some commentators regard fears of a US “kill switch” as far-fetched outside a wartime context, the recent ICC disruption has moved the discussion from hypothetical to plausible. Bauer remarks, “Such an action might become realistic near a conflict, but I do not see that scenario on the horizon.”
Nevertheless, Dario Maisto stresses that organisations must prepare for potential risks. “Two years ago, these issues seemed remote. Today, institutions are actively seeking ways to mitigate them.”
Looking Ahead: Europe’s Digital Sovereignty Journey
The road to European digital sovereignty is complex and fraught with technological, economic, and geopolitical challenges. While localized initiatives and open-source adoption highlight growing momentum, achieving comprehensive independence from US cloud providers demands substantial investment, regulatory coordination, and innovation.
For now, Europe balances engagement with dominant American firms and cautious efforts to boost regional capacities, striving for a future where its digital infrastructure aligns with political values and security imperatives.
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