Washington, D.C. โ A landmark minerals deal between the US and Ukraine collapsed Friday after a heated exchange between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The agreement, which would have granted the US access to Ukraineโs rare earth deposits, foundered over disputes about security guarantees and terms of a $350 billion reconstruction fund.
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A deal to give the US access to Ukraineโs rare earth minerals collapsed Friday after President Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky clashed over security guarantees. The agreement, which included a $350 billion reconstruction fund, was meant to offset US aid but now hangs in limbo. Hereโs how the talks unraveledโand what it means for both nations.
Key Takeaways:
- Failed Signing: Zelensky left early after a heated Oval Office exchange.
- Disputed Terms: US sought 50% of mineral proceeds; Ukraine pushed for security guarantees.
- Trumpโs Demand: โGet $300โ350 billion backโ via the deal.
- Zelenskyโs Stance: โNo compromisesโ with Russia, no deal without security guarantees.
US Demands
- $300โ350B Aid Repayment: Trump claims US sent this much to Ukraine; Kiel Institute estimates $119B.
- Minerals Access: US wants 50% of proceeds from Ukraineโs graphite, lithium, and rare earths.
Ukraineโs Position
- Security Guarantees: Zelensky seeks NATO-style protections, which Trump rejected.
- Reconstruction Fund: Ukraine would contribute 50% of mineral profits to a joint fund.
Russiaโs Role
- Putinโs Claim: Russia has โsignificantly moreโ rare earths than Ukraine.
- Occupied Territories: $350 billion in Ukrainian resources are in Russian-controlled areas.
Main Analysis
The Dealโs Terms
- Reconstruction Fund: Managed jointly by US and Ukraine, investing in โsafety, security, and prosperity.โ
- US Ownership: Maximum allowed under US law (likely 49%).
- Ukraineโs Contribution: 50% of future mineral, oil, and gas proceeds.
Trumpโs Ultimatum
- โMake a Deal or Weโre Outโ: Trump demanded concessions, accusing Zelensky of โgambling with World War Three.โ
- Security Rejection: Trump said Europe should protect Ukraine, not the US.
Zelenskyโs Resistance
- No Compromises: โWe wonโt sign until we have security guarantees.โ
- Critique of US Terms: โInitial deal challenged Ukraineโs sovereignty.โ
Expert Insights
- Tymofiy Mylovanov (Kyiv School of Economics): โUS shifted from exploitative to reasonable termsโbut sovereignty remains key.โ
- Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov: โWeโll see what Washington signs.โ
Visual: Ukraineโs Mineral Wealth
Future Outlook
- Industry Shifts: Rare earth markets may face supply chain disruptions.
- Expert Predictions:
-
- Analyst Mark Brown: โWithout security guarantees, Ukraine wonโt sign.โ
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: โNo peacekeepers in Ukraine.โ
Conclusion
The US-Ukraine minerals deal collapsed due to conflicting demands over security and sovereignty. As Trump insists on repayment and Zelensky demands guarantees, can a compromise be reached? Share your thoughts below: Should the US provide security guarantees to secure mineral access?
Final Thought:
In a world hungry for rare earths, can nations balance diplomacy with resource politics?
