US President Donald Trump’s April 22 announcement that he would “substantially” reduce the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports failed to sway Beijing, which insists on the complete removal of tariffs as the sole basis for talks. Chinese officials dismissed the gesture as insufficient and warned that only equal dialogue after a complete US tariff rollback can resolve the trade impasse. Online, nationalistic commentary in China ridiculed Trump’s overture as a sign of weakness.
Key Points
- Trump pledged in the Oval Office to lower “astronomical” US levies on Chinese goods and adopt a more “nice” negotiating stance.
- China’s Commerce Ministry stated that the US must “untie the bell it rang” by removing all unilateral tariffs before any dialogue can take place.
- The Foreign Ministry labelled reports of direct negotiations “fake news,” denying any consultations on tariffs.
- Experts in Beijing and Washington say China holds the upper hand and will wait for complete US concessions before serious talks.
- Wall Street rallied on hopes of lower duties, with the S&P 500 jumping over 3% on April 23; however, analysts warn that volatility may return.
Trump’s U-Turn on Tariffs
On April 22, speaking in the Oval Office, President Trump told reporters that the “astronomical” 145% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports would be substantially reduced, adding that he would be “very nice” at the negotiating table and would refrain from raising the issue of the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. The announcement followed a private meeting with the CEOS of Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s, who warned that high tariffs were disrupting supply chains and fueling US inflation, according to.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later clarified that any reduction would still leave duties in the “50%-65%” range, rather than full repeal, Axios reported. Financial markets responded with relief: on April 23, the S&P 500 climbed more than 3%, the Nasdaq jumped over 4%, and the dollar strengthened, as investors covered short positions built during the sell-off earlier in the week.
China’s Initial Defiance
Beijing has repeatedly insisted that only the complete removal of US-imposed tariffs can constitute a fair basis for talks. On April 24, Commerce Ministry spokesman He Yongqian said: “He who tied the bell must untie it. Then we initiated the unilateral tariff hikes. If it truly wants to resolve the issue, it should … fully remove all unilateral tariff measures against China, and find a way to resolve differences through equal dialogue,”.
At a Foreign Ministry briefing the same day, spokesman Guo Jiakun dismissed Trump’s claim of “direct talks… every day” as “fake news,” stating “China and the United States have not engaged in any consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue, let alone reached any agreement”.
US Business Community’s Concerns
Retail and manufacturing leaders have warned that sustained high tariffs—145% on Chinese imports and China’s 125% retaliatory duties on US goods—threaten to squeeze profit margins, disrupt inventories and push consumer prices higher. A joint letter from four major retailers to the White House in late March cautioned that continued escalation “risks tipping the U.S. economy into recession.”
Wall Street Rally and Caution
Markets rallied on hopes of de-escalation, but analysts cautioned that past volatility under Trump’s unpredictable trade posture could return. “Investors were relieved, but remain wary—this administration has reversed course before,” said Maya Sen, a strategist at UBS. “Unless there is a clear, binding agreement, volatility will persist”.
Goldman Sachs warned that, even after a cut to 50%–65 %, tariffs would continue to “significantly weigh” on China’s export growth and global supply chains.
Hardline Official Stance
Analysts say China’s leadership views Trump’s climbdown as driven by US domestic politics, stock market losses, inflation concerns, and midterm election pressures—and will not accept anything less than full tariff repeal. “He’s getting flustered,” said Wang Yiwei of Renmin University. “But China doesn’t buy his promise; he says one thing today and may reverse it tomorrow. He’s not trustworthy,”.
Wu Xinbo of Fudan University argues that Beijing can “afford to wait a little longer,” enduring economic friction to secure more favourable terms later. “China is in no rush. Let conflict play out; then negotiate from strength,”.
Domestic Dissent and Censorship
Despite the official hard line, some Chinese economists privately warn of mounting economic strain. A researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, speaking on condition of anonymity to CNN, stated that 145% of duties risk “massive job losses” and “social unrest.” Still, such critiques are often censored on social media.
On Weibo, the hashtag “Trump chickened out” trended with over 150 million views, as nationalistic users mocked the US for “backing down under pressure”. Comments such as “If reciprocal tariffs aren’t cancelled, don’t bother negotiating” garnered thousands of likes.
Export Growth Under Threat
China reported a 12.4% year-on-year surge in exports in March, driven partly by pre-tariff stockpiling. However, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict that growth will decelerate sharply under sustained duties, making the government’s 5% GDP growth target for 2025 difficult to meet.
Reuters data show that China’s export orders began to plateau in mid-April, even before Trump’s announcement, suggesting that businesses are delaying new shipments amid policy uncertainty.
Supply-Chain Shifts
Multinational firms are diversifying supply chains away from China to Southeast Asia and India to mitigate tariff risk. A survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China found that 38% of US firms plan to shift manufacturing out of China if duties remain above 50%.
What’s Next for Negotiations
Preconditions for Talks
China insists on pre-negotiation removal of all US tariffs. “If you want to negotiate, cancel all baseless tariffs first, then come back to the table,” said Wang Yiwei. US officials, however, warn against a full repeal without reciprocal Chinese commitments on technology transfers, intellectual property protection, and state subsidies.
International Diplomatic Moves
In mid-April, Xi Jinping toured three Southeast Asian nations — Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia — emphasising China’s role as a stable economic partner and implicitly contrasting it with the US’s unpredictability. Beijing has also courted the EU, Africa and Latin America as alternative markets, warning them against “deals at China’s expense” with Washington.
Timeline Uncertainty
With the US midterm elections looming in November 2025, both sides may use tariff rhetoric for domestic political gain. Many analysts now view a high-stakes waiting game: Washington seeking partial relief for US businesses, while Beijing holds out for a complete rollback. Formal negotiations may not resume until after the US election, at which point each side will reassess leverage.
President Trump’s promise to lower tariffs on Chinese imports has thus far yielded only derision from Beijing and nationalistic fervour on Chinese social media. With both sides entrenched—China demanding full repeal and the US seeking partial cuts, along with structural commitments—negotiations remain stalled. Markets cheered the prospect of relief, but volatility and economic risks persist until a detailed, enforceable agreement is in place.
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