San Francisco de Conchos, Chihuahua, Mexico After 30 consecutive months without significant rainfall, communities in northern Mexico’s Chihuahua state face a crippling drought that threatens agriculture, ecosystems, and cross-border relations with the United States. At the center of the crisis is La Boquilla, the region’s largest dam, whose reservoir, Lake Toronto, has fallen below 14% capacity unveiling parched lakebeds once submerged, and reigniting long-standing tensions over water rights shared under a decades-old treaty.
Record Drought Dries Up Crucial Reservoir
Local farmers, officials, and residents gathered recently on the exposed shoreline of Lake Toronto behind La Boquilla dam, praying for relief amid soaring temperatures regularly hitting 42°C (107.6°F). The reservoir, vital to both agriculture and water provision in the region, now sits 26.52 meters below its high-water mark.
“This should all be underwater,” said Rafael Betance, a volunteer water monitor who has tracked La Boquilla’s levels for the past 35 years for Chihuahua’s water authority. “The last time the dam overflowed was in 2017. Since then it’s dropped every year.”
Chihuahua’s agricultural sector, heavily dependent on irrigation from the Rio Conchos a major tributary of the Rio Grande is confronting yawning water shortages that imperil crops such as walnuts and alfalfa, both water-intensive plants. As the drought deepens, local experts warn that if rainfall fails to resume, agriculture may become unsustainable in the near future.
Historical Context: The 1944 Water Treaty and Shared Resources
The Rio Grande, or Río Bravo, is a crucial watercourse forming part of the border between Mexico and the United States. Since 1944, an international treaty has governed water-sharing obligations, stipulating that Mexico must deliver approximately 430 million cubic meters of water annually to the US, while the US reciprocates by supplying nearly 1.85 billion cubic meters yearly from the Colorado River to Mexican border cities like Tijuana and Mexicali.
These water allocations are managed through joint infrastructure operated by the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), a US-Mexico binational agency tasked with implementing the treaty. Yet Mexico has been in arrears on its delivery to Texas for much of the 21st century, largely due to drought and infrastructure challenges.
Rising Tensions Over Water Deliveries
The persistent shortfall in Mexico’s Rio Grande deliveries has led to friction with Texas, where farmers and politicians have increasingly pressured the US federal government to enforce treaty compliance. In 2023, then-US President Donald Trump publicly accused Mexico of “stealing” water on social media and threatened tariffs or sanctions if Mexico failed to meet its obligations. Meanwhile, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged the deficit but adopted a conciliatory stance, highlighting climatic and environmental challenges.
Mexico has recently transferred an initial 75 million cubic meters via the Amistad dam on the border, but this falls far short of the estimated 1.5 billion cubic meters owed. The delays have inflamed tensions on both sides of the border.
Conflicting Perspectives from Farmers and Officials
Texan farmers, such as Brian Jones of the Rio Grande Valley, argue that Mexico’s noncompliance is harming their livelihoods directly. Jones, a fourth-generation farmer, stated: “We’ve been battling Mexico as they haven’t been living up to their part of the deal. All we want is what’s rightfully ours under the treaty.” He further alleges that water deliveries have been withheld even when supplies were available, accusing Chihuahua farmers of “hoarding water” to maintain competitive agriculture.
Conversely, Mexican farmers and water managers maintain that the treaty’s provisions depend on Mexico meeting its own water needs first. Given the prolonged drought, “there’s no extra water to send north,” said Betance. Local agriculturists emphasize that water scarcity is a shared challenge, aggravated by outdated infrastructure and inefficient irrigation practices.
Irrigation Practices and Agricultural Sustainability
One of the points of contention involves irrigation methods. Traditional flood irrigation is widespread in northern Mexico, which results in substantial water waste. “Driving through the valley, you see walnut groves flooded with water flowing from open pipes,” explained a Texan water specialist familiar with the area. U.S. critics argue that adopting modern, efficient irrigation would preserve scarce resources for treaty obligations.
Some Mexican farmers have begun transitioning to improved methods. Jaime Ramirez, former mayor of San Francisco de Conchos, showcased his walnut groves irrigated by modern sprinklers that reportedly use 60% less water than conventional flooding. Ramirez urges mutual understanding: “Not everyone can afford to install these systems, and they’re doing their best under difficult conditions.” He cautioned that if the drought persists, water conservation will become paramount to provide drinking water instead of irrigation.
Environmental and Economic Impacts
The drought is impacting more than agriculture. Lake Toronto’s low water levels cause rapid heating of remaining water, threatening fish populations and aquatic ecosystems critical to local biodiversity and a once-thriving tourism industry. Betance lamented, “The valley’s outlook hasn’t been this dire during the decades I’ve monitored the lake.”
The unfolding humanitarian, economic, and environmental crisis in Chihuahua underscores wider regional vulnerabilities amid climate change and increased demand on transboundary water resources.
Treaty’s Future and Regional Cooperation
Experts familiar with U.S.-Mexico water relations note that the 1944 treaty, while historic, may no longer adequately address the realities of 21st-century water management in the face of climate variability and population growth.
Dr. Laura Thompson, a water policy analyst at the University of Texas, said: “The treaty has endured because of strong binational cooperation, but increasing stress from drought and competing demands require modernisation. Flexible frameworks and investment are needed to adapt to changing conditions without escalating disputes.”
Meanwhile, officials on both sides must reconcile competing interests while ensuring community livelihoods and environmental sustainability.
Outlook and Possible Resolutions
With climate change projected to intensify drought cycles across the southwest US and northern Mexico, water scarcity is expected to worsen absent substantial reforms in resource management. Enhanced cross-border coordination, infrastructure upgrades, and sustainable agricultural practices could alleviate pressures.
In the short term, farmers on each side of the border remain caught between natural scarcity and political impasses. “Praying for rain is all we have left,” said Betance.
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